The Scottish effect

With the PM rejecting the request for a second referendum next year, the gloves are off. Nichola Sturgeon hinted in which direction SNP’s proposition for independence in the next referendum campaign will go. It will be less about the economic argument even though a UK post Brexit will have lost much of its attraction. Correctly, the First Minister pointed out the misrepresentation of Scottish interests in the May government, who has only one Scottish Tory MP in the parliament. In comparison, a small country like Luxembourg has more say in European Union affairs than Scotland in Theresa May so precious union. While Luxembourg will need to approve the future Brexit, in the motherland of Western democracy the parliament can’t be sure of its say in 2 years time and even less so Scotland. To take it further, it’s not just about having a vote. Scotland’s political values are different to England’s. England is Tory, Scotland is SNP or Labour. England is for Brexit, Scotland for the EU. Being a powerless minority would be less painful, if views were aligned. Under New Labour’s rule these differences were not so significant, but with the current Tory government with a rather autocratic Prime Minister it seems to be more likely that Europe will not only loose UK, but UK will loose Scotland. At the end of the process it might not be the European Union that breaks apart but United Kingdom. This is not inevitable. If Theresa May becomes inclusive not by words but action, the United Kingdom can survive, but it will need to become more federal, more like the European Union. Both outcomes would not be what Brexiteers have dreamed of, but they can’t say they haven’t be warned.